SPECIAL ALERT: Election Analysis and Impact on Health Care Policy

SPECIAL ALERT: Election Analysis and Impact on Health Care Policy

NAAOP

11/10/2016

Election Analysis and Impact on Health Care Policy
( <URL Redacted>)


Executive Summary
The Republican Party won the Presidency and maintained control of the United
States Congress, with businessman Donald J. Trump (R) winning the
Presidential election to become the 45th President of the United States.
Donald J. Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the Electoral College
but not the popular vote. Overall, President-elect Trump won 279 electoral
votes to Secretary Clinton's 228. The popular vote totaled 59,623,049 votes
for Secretary Clinton, while Mr. Trump received 59,418,103 votes (a
difference of 204,946 votes). Secretary Clinton raised $1.3 billion and
President-elect Trump raised $795 million, respectively, for their
presidential campaigns- equating to a whopping $2.1 billion Presidential
race.

In the Congressional races, Senate Republicans maintained their control of
the chamber with 51 members, with one race still undetermined (Louisiana).
While House Democrats made some gains, adding a net of six seats in the
United States House of Representatives as of this writing, Republicans
retained control of the chamber with at least 238 seats to their party.
Republicans now control the Executive branch and the Legislative branch for
the first time since 2005-2006 in the 109th Congress during the presidency
of George W. Bush.
  
Net Changes in the 115th Congress & Governors
Senate House Governors
Republicans 51 (-1) 238 (-6) 34 (+3)
Democrats 46 (+2) 193 (+6) 15 (-3)
Independents 2* (same) 0 1
* Sens. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) currently caucus with
the Democrats.
Senate: Louisiana results still being determined, and are not included.
House: Results for California Districts 7, 25, and 49, and Louisiana
Districts 3 and 4 are still being determined and are not included.
Governors: The result in North Carolina is still being determined and is not
reflected by this table.
Republicans are in red text, Democrats are in blue text, Independents are in
purple text.

Republicans lost Senator Mark Kirk's seat in Illinois. Congresswoman Tammy
Duckworth won this seat, making her the only bilateral amputee in the Senate
and a strong supporter of the O&P policy agenda. At the time of this
writing, Republicans have held on to at least 51 seats in the chamber. Of
the 34 Senate races, the following twelve races were, at most times during
2016, the most competitive:
  
Most Competitive Senate Races
State Elected Defeated
Arizona John McCain (R)* Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
Colorado Michael Bennet (D)* Darryl Glenn (R)
Florida Marco Rubio (R)* Patrick Murphy (D)
Illinois Tammy Duckworth (D) Mark Kirk
(R)*
Indiana Todd Young (R) Evan Bayh (D)
Louisiana TBD TBD
Missouri Roy Blunt (R)* Jason Kander (D)
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan (D) Kelly Ayotte (R)*
North Carolina Richard Burr (R)* Deborah Ross (D)
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto (D) Joe Heck (R)
Ohio Rob Portman (R)* Ted Strickland (D)
Pennsylvania Patrick Toomey (R)* Katie McGinty (D)
Wisconsin Ron Johnson (R)* Russ Feingold (D)
Results from Louisiana are to be determined (TBD); Louisiana is scheduled to
hold a runoff vote on December 10, 2016.
Republicans are in red text, Democrats are in blue text.
* Incumbent.

Potential Impact of Elections on the Lame Duck Session
The House and Senate reconvene the week of November 14 for a week of
business, followed by a week off and then a two-week session leading up to
the December 9 expiration of federal funding. Current Senate Majority Leader
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI)
have stated that they would like to address the annual appropriations bills,
and seek to pass the 21st Century Cures/Innovation for Healthier Americans
legislative packages surrounding medical innovation. This may provide some
opportunity to try to amend some of the O&P legislation we have been
promoting to legislation that is otherwise moving through Congress. However,
the legislative climate surrounding the health care innovation package and
all legislation remains uncertain, as the smoke clears from the election.

Throughout the presidential campaign, candidate Donald J. Trump repeatedly
stated that he will seek to dismantle the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Whether
a Republican-led House and Senate will repeal the ACA, engage in
negotiations for significant reform, or completely replace the ACA with
their vision for health care reform remains in question. President-elect
Trump's vision for action on the ACA borrows heavily from the Republican
Party's Platform and House Speaker Ryan's healthcare blueprint published
this past summer entitled, A Better Way.

Who will lead the Department of Health and Human Services under the Trump
Administration is another question on which speculation is already rampant.
Who is chosen to lead HHS promises to more fully inform the direction a
Trump Administration would take on health care issues. Candidates most often
mentioned include Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich; former Republican
Presidential candidate Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon; and Florida Governor,
Rick Scott. But, there is also speculation that a health care business
leader could also be a logical choice for Trump to make given his statements
on running our country more like a business.

Conclusion
Few predicted the wave that swept Donald Trump to the Presidency and limited
the losses in both the House and Senate for Republicans. There are many
details that will emerge in the coming months that will signal how
President-elect Trump plans to proceed on health care issues, and NAAOP will
inform its members and friends as developments occur.




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